What will the world’s largest economies do by 2016

12 July 2015

Rather favorable conditions for them, always interconnected economies of the planet, despite the Greek crisis and shocks in the eurozone.

According to a survey of Japanese Nomura Securities, a subsidiary of the namesake investment bank, the outlook is rather good in most down GDP growth, but warns of continued crisis in the eurozone.

It predicts that Asia will continue its dynamic growth (despite the Chinese slowdown), except Australia and South Korea weakened.

The average GDP growth will be 3.1% (versus 3.3% last year).

Let’s see in detail

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UNITED STATES
Projected GDP growth
2015: 2.0%
2016: 2.5%
Projected CPI Growth

According to Nomura Securities the positive will outweigh the negative and expected steady growth. “Brake” in this put the problems of the oil industry and the strong dollar affecting exports

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UNITED KINGDOM
Projected GDP growth
2015: 2.1%
2016: 2.6%

The high private debt is recognized as a problem and so far high rate of growth will not continue in the same way. Analysts expect an increase in interest rates by the Monetary Policy Committee around the beginning of 2016, but consider that it will be too late, since already “nibble” overcapacity sowing the seeds of the next crisis.

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EUROZONE
Projected GDP growth
2015: 1.3%
2016: 1.1%

The ECB has made it clear that they intend to change the general attitude and is not expected changes in the course of GDP and inflation. Of course, everything will depend on the course of the Greek crisis.

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RUSSIA

Prospects of GDP
2015: -3.8%
2016: -1.6%

The worst seems to have passed. The fall in GDP tempered, but the price of oil should go up to allow the government to refrain from initiating further drastic cuts. Although the numbers seem to stabilize, the economy remains extremely weak.

CHINA
Projected GDP growth
2015: 6.8%
2016: 6.5%

The slowdown and the reduction in exports will inevitably bring the government’s intervention to stabilize the situation. The Nomura Securities provides at least two rate cuts and deleveraging.

AUSTRALIA
Projected GDP growth
2015: 2.3%
2016: 2.1%

The numbers lead the Nomura provide weakening of the economy of the country, despite the optimistic signals of the first quarter. Exports are falling, retail sales are not increasing, and commodity prices are expected to fall.

JAPAN
Projected GDP growth
2015: 1.1%
2016: 1.8%

The government threw in the economy 28.3 billion. And reduced tax on businesses by 2.51% in order to stimulate growth. In this also helps to increase the consumption, exports and public works.

INDIA
Projected GDP growth
2015: 7.8%
2016: 8.3%

After a rather weak 2014, the country is preparing for dramatic recovery. An increase in disposable income for purchases of government investment in infrastructure, breakout investment and improving the business environment, while lowering inflation.

CANADA
Projected GDP growth
2015: 1.4%
2016: 2.0%

The fall in oil prices has negatively affected the country’s economy and this is reflected in the contraction in GDP for the 1st quarter of 2015 and a decline in consumer spending. The Nomura predicts both business investment and exports will remain in their current state.

BRAZIL
Prospects of GDP
2015: -1.3%
2016: 1.0%

The performance of Q1 was frustrating and is expected to evolve to a contraction of GDP. There has declined and private consumption and investment and the further decline was halted by high exports. With high unemployment and reduced consumer confidence, Nomura does not see serious signs of recovery on the horizon

Source

 


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